Shot Making & Quality Dashboard
Analyze player shooting performance versus expectation based on shot quality.
Model by reverseenigma
Loading shotmaking data...
Select teams to highlight them in the scatter plot and table below. This does not re-filter the data.
Player Analysis Scatter Plot
Player Details
Metric Definitions
These metrics measure shooting performance by comparing a player's actual results to what would be expected from a league-average shooter taking the same shots.
For a deeper dive into the methodology and concepts, check out this excellent article: Beyond the Box Score: How Good Are Your Favorite Players at Making Shots?
2-Point Scoring Metrics
- PTS2
- Total points scored from all 2-point field goals (made 2s × 2).
- xPTS2
- Expected points from 2-pointers, calculated as shot volume × expected make probability × 2. Uses league average probabilities for shot quality.
- FG2_PCT
- Actual field goal percentage on 2-pointers (2PM / 2PA).
- Shot_Making2
- Measures how much better or worse the player shot on 2-pointers compared to expectation. Defined as (FG2% – expected FG2%) on a percentage basis.
- Points_Added2
- Difference between actual and expected points on 2-pointers. Positive means the player generated more points than expected from their shot locations.
3-Point Scoring Metrics
- PTS3
- Total points scored from all 3-point field goals (made 3s × 3).
- xPTS3
- Expected points from 3-pointers, calculated as shot volume × expected make probability × 3.
- FG3_PCT
- Actual field goal percentage on 3-pointers (3PM / 3PA).
- Shot_Making3
- Measures shot-making skill on threes relative to expectation. Defined as (FG3% – expected FG3%).
- Points_Added3
- Difference between actual and expected points on 3-pointers.
Overall Scoring & Efficiency
- PTS
- Total points scored from 2s and 3s combined.
- xPTS
- Expected points across all shots, given the player’s shot distribution and league averages.
- eFG
- Effective Field Goal Percentage, which weights 3-pointers as worth 1.5 field goals. Formula: (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) ÷ FGA.
- xeFG
- Expected effective FG%, based on shot quality and expected conversion rates.
- Shot_Making
- Overall shot-making skill (eFG – xeFG). Positive = player outperformed shot quality.
- Points_Added
- Total points above (or below) expectation across all FGs.
Adjusted Points Added
- PA_envAdj
- Points Added adjusted for environment, meaning league-wide changes in shooting efficiency that season.
- PA_paceAdj
- Points Added adjusted for pace of play, scaling results to a neutral possessions context.
- PA_envPaceAdj
- Final adjustment that accounts for both environment and pace. This is the “cleanest” apples-to-apples Points Added metric across eras.